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Post by dukelightning on Aug 31, 2011 15:49:57 GMT -5
wahoo, I see your point. And thanks to your prediction, I will now add from now on the top 2 current drought years for each series. Oddly enough the top 2 in the 80s both have the same dates....81 and 87.
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Post by dukelightning on Sept 6, 2011 9:23:38 GMT -5
Another preview for you.......
Last 3 shows played: 80s...86,85,80 70s....................76,71,78 SXM...................71,75,70
Shows played last 3 years: 80s....9/19/87 last year, 9/17/83, 9/20/80, 9/18/82, 9/20/86 70s......9/13/75 last year, 9/18/76, 9/14/74, 9/16/78 SXM............9/15/79 last year, 9/16/78
Bonus factoid.....Premiere has played 85, 86 and 87 in consecutive weeks twice....in April and November 2007
Longest current droughts: 80s...81 and 87 70s.......................77 and 75 SXM......................76 and 78
Guest hosted shows: none that were not listed last week
Historic shows: 9/18/71...Donny Osmond bookends top 40 9/16/72...Black and White climbs 9-1 9/15/73...record 6th #1 song by a female artist(not mentioned until the next week......................... 9/22/73...record 20 R&B songs in top 40 9/22/79...first LDD by an artist who never made the top 40 9/20/80...only one debut record in top 40 9/19/81...Endless Love tied Zager & Evans record for most weeks at #1 by a duo 9/19/87...Michael Jackson bookends top 40
Trends/patterns: With the extenuating circumstances surrounding the 12-1 climb of "Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey", here are the biggest climbs to #1 in the 70s and 80s...............
10-1....The Night the Lights Went Out in Georgia (73) and 50 Ways to Leave Your Lover (76) 9-1.....Black and White (72)** and The Morning After (73) 8-1...Island Girl (75), Tonight's the Night (76) and Star Wars Theme/Cantina Band (77)
** Only one that spent just 1 week at #1
The biggest climb in the 80s was 6-1 by Rapture in 1981.
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Post by matt on Sept 6, 2011 16:08:49 GMT -5
I will hold off on making my prediction for the 80's show to be played the weekend of 9/17/11, but I already know what I'm going to say. The 70's show on the other hand is a little harder to guess.
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Post by dukelightning on Sept 13, 2011 8:42:04 GMT -5
It is preview time folks........
Last 3 shows played: 80s...81, 86, 85 70s...............74, 76, 71 SXM...............76, 71, 75
Shows played last 3 years: 80s...9/25/82 last year, 9/28/85 (no shows from the last 10 days of Sept. were played in 2009) 70s.........9/25/71 last year, 9/30/78, 9/29/73, 9/24/77 SXM........9/22/73 and 9/27/75 last year, 9/24/77
Guest hosted or special shows: 9/30/72, 9/29/79, 9/27/80
Longest current droughts: 80s...87 and 84 70s.....................77 and 75 SXM....................78 and 73
Factoid of the week: all of the 80s have been played at least 4 times this year except 1987 which not only has been played just twice this year but only 3 times since 9/18,19/2010.
Historic shows: 9/23/72...only one female performer in the top 40 9/25/82....history repeats itself 6 years later as Steve Miller knocks Chicago from the #1 spot 9/26/87....2 remakes of Tommy James & the Shondells songs debut in top 40
Trends/patterns: Several years have been played 5 weeks later or fewer since they were previously played recently..............
80s: 7/26/80 and 8/30/80; 8/2/86 and 9/13/86 70s: 7/14/79 and 8/18/79; 7/31/76 and 9/4/76; 8/17/74 and 9/21/74 SXM: 7/25/70 and 8/22/70
In the case of the 1976 and 1980 pair, the shows bookended 4 week #1 songs being at #1(Don't Go Breaking My Heart and Magic)
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Post by matt on Sept 13, 2011 11:21:16 GMT -5
It is preview time folks........ Last 3 shows played: 80s...81, 86, 85 70s...............74, 76, 71 SXM...............76, 71, 75 Shows played last 3 years: 80s...9/25/82 last year, 9/28/85 (no shows from the last 10 days of Sept. were played in 2009) 70s.........9/25/71 last year, 9/30/78, 9/29/73, 9/24/77 SXM........9/22/73 and 9/27/75 last year, 9/24/77 Guest hosted or special shows: 9/30/72, 9/29/79, 9/27/80 Longest current droughts: 80s...87 and 84 70s.....................77 and 75 SXM....................78 and 73 Factoid of the week: all of the 80s have been played at least 4 times this year except 1987 which not only has been played just twice this year but only 3 times since 9/18,19/2010. Historic shows: 9/23/72...only one female performer in the top 40 9/25/82....history repeats itself 6 years later as Steve Miller knocks Chicago from the #1 spot 9/26/87....2 remakes of Tommy James & the Shondells songs debut in top 40 Trends/patterns: Several years have been played 5 weeks later or fewer since they were previously played recently.............. 80s: 7/26/80 and 8/30/80; 8/2/86 and 9/13/86 70s: 7/14/79 and 8/18/79; 7/31/76 and 9/4/76; 8/17/74 and 9/21/74 SXM: 7/25/70 and 8/22/70 In the case of the 1976 and 1980 pair, the shows bookended 4 week #1 songs being at #1(Don't Go Breaking My Heart and Magic) I have an idea of what my predictions will be for the weekend of 9/24/11. The question for both Premiere shows is whether or not we get a repeat show as some are speculating we might. But Premiere has played quite a few repeats in the last couple months...would they repeat another show? Let the speculation commence!
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Post by dukelightning on Sept 20, 2011 8:12:02 GMT -5
It's time to start Rocktober as some people like to call it!
Last 3 shows played: 80s...87, 81, 86 70s......75, 74, 76 (third time they have played these 3 years consecutively) SXM..............70, 76, 71
Shows played last 3 years: 80s....10/4/80 last year, 10/6/84, 10/3/87 70s........10/7/72 last year, 10/2/71, 10/5/74 SXM........9/27/75 last year, 10/2/71, 10/7/78
Guest hosted and special shows: 80s....10/2/82, 10/1/83 70s.....10/6/73, 10/5/74, 10/4/75, 10/2/76
Longest current droughts: 80s....84 and 82 70s.........77 and 72 SXM........78 and 73
Historic shows: 10/7/78..........first 4 hour show 10/6/79.......contains the longest segment with a running time of 15:41 ....also features "Sad Eyes" tying the record for slowest climb to #1 10/4/80....features 13 female only artists in top 40
Trends/patterns.....now at the 3/4 point of the year, here are the standings for years played to this point. Specials are not included.........
80s....80 and 86....5 times 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 88....4 times 87........3 times
70s.......75..........6 times 78 and 79........5 times 72, 74, 76........4 times 71, 73, 77........3 times 70........once
SXM........71.........5 times 70, 72, 73....4 times 74 through 79.....3 times
Needless to say, SXM likes the early 70s.
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Post by dukelightning on Sept 27, 2011 14:31:34 GMT -5
Time for another preview and I will now add my predictions at the end of it. Anybody want to predict how long it will take me to get all 3 right....a week, a month, a year, never!!!
Last 3 shows played: 80s...84, 87, 81 70s...............77, 75, 74 SXM..............78, 70, 76
Shows played last 3 years: 80s...10/11/86 and 10/13/84 last year...no shows played between 10/4 and 10/17 in 2008 or 9 70s..............10/9/71 last year, 10/14/72, 10/13/73 SXM..............10/10/70 last year, 10/2/71, 10/7/78
Longest current droughts: 80s.....82 and 83 70s........................72 and 73 SXM.......................73 and 72
Factoid.....this week, all 3 series are playing the year that had been their longest current drought
Guest hosted shows: 10/11/75
Historic shows: 10/10/70.....first chart record established in AT40 history by CCR for most #2 singles but not mentioned by Casey 10/10/81.......Stop Draggin My Heart Around spends a 6th week at #3 and Endless Love is at #1 for a 9th week
No trend or pattern this week but as mentioned I will now predict next week's shows. With 72 and 73 both in current droughts for both 70s series, there has got to be a show from one of those years............
80s..........10/9/82 70s..........10/10/70 SXM...........10/7/72
Hope I didn't influence anyone!
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Post by dukelightning on Oct 4, 2011 10:05:42 GMT -5
Another preview for you..........
Last 3 regular show played: 80s...82, 84, 87 70s...........................76, 77, 75 SXM...........................78, 70, 76
Shows played last 3 years: 80s....10/22/83 last year, 10/17/81, 10/17/87, 10/19/85 70s..............10/17/70 last year, 10/14/72, 10/19/74 SXM.............10/10/70 and 10/14/78 last year, 10/13/73
Guest hosted shows............10/11/75
Longest current droughts: 80s....83 and 80 70s..................72 and 73 SXM.................73 and 72
Historic shows....10/19/74...record 28th #1 song of the year occurs 10/18/80.....record 6th top 40 hit from Urban Cowboy occurs 10/15/83.....#1 and #2 songs both produced by Jim Steinman also "Say Say Say" is the highest Hot 100 debut in 12 years 10/19/85... only one debut record in top 40
Factoid...."Nothing from Nothing" not only is the record-setting 28th #1 song of 1974 but then falls to 15 setting record for the biggest drop from #1
Trends/patterns....this week is another instance of 3 shows from the same year being played within 3 months this year...............
80s......3 from 1988 between 4/30 and 7/16 70s.......3 from 1975 between 1/18 and 3/19 or between 2/19 and 4/26......3 from 1978 between 5/28 and 8/27....3 from 1976 between 7/30 and 10/8 SXM.......3 from 1973 between 1/15 and 3/26....3 from 1971 between 3/12 and 5/28......3 from 1972 between 4/30 and 7/16.....3 from 1970 between 7/30 and 9/24
Would have thought the series with the fewest years would have the most of these but the 80s have only one.
Predictions.....I don't know what is going on with the 70s series so I can't predict. If they are abandoning the early 70s either somewhat or entirely, then that changes everything. But I don't know for sure. All I know is a year ago, they were getting ready to play their 4th 1970 show whereas this year, they have played only one. They have played one 1971 show in the last 6 months and no shows from 72 or 73 in the last 3 months. So until I get info on what they are doing, predicting shows makes no sense.
80s.....10/15/83 SXM......10/14/72
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Post by dukelightning on Oct 11, 2011 16:20:22 GMT -5
Thanks to caseyfan4ever for providing the info on previously aired SXM shows. Now I have more data to work with in these previews.........
Last 3 shows played: 80s.........85,82,84 70s.....................................79,76,77 SXM....................................79,78,70
Shows played last 3 years: 80s.....10/22/83 last year, 10/24/84 70s............10/23/76 last year Other than 10/24/84, neither of the series above played shows dated between 10/19 and 10/29 in 2008 or 9 SXM.......10/21/72 last year, 10/20/79, 10/19/74*
* also played by Premiere in 2008
Guest hosted shows: 10/26/85, 10/24/87
Longest current droughts: 80s....83 and 80 70s...................72 and 73 SXM..................73 and 72
Factoid: the above is exactly the same as last week.
Historic shows: 11/23/71...."Imagine" debuts on the Hot 100 at 20 and "Theme from Shaft" debuts in the top 40 at #9, the highest debut in the 70s or 80s 10/20/73.....tribute to Jim Croce after his death 10/19/74.....record 28th #1 song of the year 10/23/76......portion played of "Autumn Leaves" by Roger Williams who died recently
Trends/patterns: recently 1971 was not played on either 70s series in 3 straight months. There are 2 years in danger of that happening to. If 1972 and 73 are not played next week or the week after, that will be the case for both years.
Predictions: as noted last week, I am not predicting 70s series shows at this time
80s.........10/25/80 SXM..........10/20/73
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Post by albe on Oct 15, 2011 7:33:48 GMT -5
Thanks to caseyfan4ever for providing the info on previously aired SXM shows. Now I have more data to work with in these previews......... Last 3 shows played: 80s.........85,82,84 70s.....................................79,76,77 SXM....................................79,78,70 Shows played last 3 years: 80s.....10/22/83 last year, 10/24/84 70s............10/23/76 last year Other than 10/24/84, neither of the series above played shows dated between 10/19 and 10/29 in 2008 or 9 SXM.......10/21/72 last year, 10/20/79, 10/19/74* * also played by Premiere in 2008 Guest hosted shows: 10/26/85, 10/24/87 Longest current droughts: 80s....83 and 80 70s...................72 and 73 SXM..................73 and 72 Factoid: the above is exactly the same as last week. Historic shows: 11/23/71...."Imagine" debuts on the Hot 100 at 20 and "Theme from Shaft" debuts in the top 40 at #9, the highest debut in the 70s or 80s 10/20/73.....tribute to Jim Croce after his death 10/19/74.....record 28th #1 song of the year 10/23/76......portion played of "Autumn Leaves" by Roger Williams who died recently Trends/patterns: recently 1971 was not played on either 70s series in 3 straight months. There are 2 years in danger of that happening to. If 1972 and 73 are not played next week or the week after, that will be the case for both years. Predictions: as noted last week, I am not predicting 70s series shows at this time 80s.........10/25/80 SXM..........10/20/73 Hey dukedeb I hope you could give a similar explanation for the Thread on "What it takes to make AT40 Extras Predictions" Thx
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Post by dukelightning on Oct 15, 2011 11:16:08 GMT -5
Could you explain what you mean by what you wrote. For some reason, I am not getting what you are looking for.
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Post by dukelightning on Oct 19, 2011 8:56:28 GMT -5
I would rather do these in one post 80s....10/29/83 70s....10/31/70 SXM....10/27/73 Yes I am predicting a copycat show but SXM if you read these posts, I would rather you play 10/28/72.
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Post by dukelightning on Nov 1, 2011 8:16:02 GMT -5
Might as well get the predictions started.........
80s.......11/14/81 70s.......11/11/72 SXM.......11/9/74
BTW, it has been 5 months since SXM played a 1973 show. However, they played 11/10/73 last year so cannot predict that one.
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Post by dukelightning on Nov 7, 2011 7:57:03 GMT -5
Might as well get the predictions started......... 80s.......11/14/81 70s.......11/11/72 SXM.......11/9/74 BTW, it has been 5 months since SXM played a 1973 show. However, they played 11/10/73 last year so cannot predict that one. 2 out of 3 aint bad but I want all 3 one of these weeks. What did me in is playing the same year in the 80s just 4 weeks apart. They did that twice before this year. Guess all these 85 and 86 shows are being played...that's 3 straight months for both years....because they are holding off on 87 to play the year end show and 88 is out of the mix since July.
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Post by dukelightning on Nov 8, 2011 8:14:05 GMT -5
Ok, 2 out of 3 last week. Will this be the week that I get all 3 right? Or will I get shutout! 80s....11/24/84 70s....11/18/78 SXM....11/19/77 The choices are limited in the 80s. If you eliminate years played the previous 3 weeks, the show played last year and the likely year end show year, that leaves just 1980 and 84 as options. If these predictions are correct, next week's shows will all be one year later for each series then last week's shows....76-77-83.
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