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Post by dukelightning on Aug 8, 2011 21:47:56 GMT -5
Ok, a lot of time and effort is being expended guessing and figuring out what next week's shows are going to be. So to that end, I present to you a new thread previewing the possible shows. First an explanation of each section.
Last 3 years played: this will show the last 3 years played on each series which is this week's show, last week's show and the previous show. While all 3 series played years either 2 or 3 weeks apart last year, none of them played a year which aired in the previous 3 weeks this year. So you might want to eliminate the 3 years listed in this section from the choices.
Shows played near next week's date in the last 3 years: this will show the dates of shows played in 2008,9 and 10. While there are a couple exceptions most notably by SXM, generally speaking, shows aired in the last 3 years have not been played.
Guest hosted show near next week's date: self-explanatory
Historic show: this will show the most historic show of those not listed above that is near next week's date
Trend or pattern: any trend or pattern that is worth noting
Here goes....Last 3 years played: 80s series...82, 86, 84
Pre 70s series...74, 70, 76
SXM series...77, 70, 72 (special not counted)
Shows played last 3 years: 80s...8/22/81 last year, 8/24/85, 8/22/87
Pre 70s...8/25/73 last year, 8/26/72, 8/26/78
SXM...8/21/76 last year, 8/20/77 (no data on 2008)
Guest hosted shows....8/23/86
Year with longest current drought: 80s...83
Pre 70s...71
SXM...75
Historic shows: 80s...8/20/83...Every Breath You Take at #1 for a 7th week
70s...8/19/78....top 14 positions remain the same
Trend or pattern: top 10 droughts....since there is a current drought that has made the top 10, the longest droughts between shows played is listed.
1. SXM 8/21/76 to 5/7/77...8 months, 2 weeks...2010-11
2. Premiere 5/6/72 to 12/16/72...7 months, 1 week...2009
3. Premiere 6/22/74 to 1/4/75...6 months, 2 weeks...2009-10
4. SXM 11/18/78 to 5/19/79...6 months...2009-10
4. SXM 11/10/73 to 5/11/74...6 months...2010-11
6. SXM 7/27/74 to 1/18/75...5 months, 3 weeks...2009-10
7. SXM 1/7/78 to 6/17/78...5 months, 2 weeks...2010
7. SXM 3/1/75 to ?.....5 months, 2 weeks....2011
9. Premiere 9/14/74 to 2/1/75...4 months, 3 weeks...2007-8
9. Premiere 3/11/78 to 7/29/78...4 months, 3 weeks...2010
FYI, the 80s series has none of the 10 longest droughts, probably because of the shorter span of available shows. Non-year end specials cannot end a drought.
And that is your preview!
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Post by matt on Aug 9, 2011 12:21:05 GMT -5
dukedeb - this is great! I kind of do a similar analysis when I formulate my picks for next week's shows...
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Post by kahunaburger61 on Aug 10, 2011 0:49:08 GMT -5
I put mine through the Billboard computer from the 70's that I bought at garage sale. You know the one that makes the blip blip blip sound.
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Post by dukelightning on Aug 16, 2011 10:49:29 GMT -5
It's time for another preview everybody...........
Last 3 shows played: 80s....83, 82, 86
70s.........79, 74, 70
SXM........74, 77, 70
Shows played last 3 years: 80s....8/27/83 last year, 8/31/85, 8/29/87
70s......8/26/72 and 8/27/77 last year, 8/26/78, 8/30/75, 8/28/76
SXM.......8/28/71 last year, 8/30/75 (no data on 2008)
Guest hosted shows: none
Longest current drought: 80s....81
70s....71
SXM....75 (now tied for the 6th longest drought ever)
Historic shows: 80s....8/29/81...Casey says it is the first week since the disco era started that there are no disco songs in the top 40
8/28/82....the top 12 songs remain in the same position (just over 4 years since the top 14 songs were frozen)
70s....8/28/76....only one debut record
8/27/77....Casey pays tribute to Elvis in the first show recorded after his death
8/26/78....first long distance dedication is played
Trends/patterns: artists with multiple shows this year at #1
80s....Whitney Houston (3), Stevie Wonder, George Michael, Hall & Oates (2)
70s...Bee Gees and Chic (2)
SXM...Elton John, Eagles, Paul McCartney (2)
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Post by bestmusicexpert on Aug 16, 2011 11:30:23 GMT -5
8-28-82: I didn't realize that... I have that show. One of the only weeks that Paul Davis' cover of Love Or Let Me Be Lonely is in the top 40.
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Post by matt on Aug 16, 2011 13:27:41 GMT -5
Maybe SXM will wise up and switch to '75 for this weekend's show!
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Post by matt on Aug 16, 2011 13:34:16 GMT -5
dukedeb - one thing to note is that given Premiere's latest trend, next week's show should be an early 70's show, which means that 76, 77, and 78 may have lower odds. I would love to hear a 78 show since we haven't heard one since June. Even though we are in a 71 drought, we heard 8-28-71 on SXM last year, so I could wait on 71...
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Post by dukelightning on Aug 16, 2011 14:08:02 GMT -5
wahoo, BTW, your post on the XM thread yesterday made me think it was solely to get SXM to change their minds. Let's hope you succeed in your attempt.
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Post by dukelightning on Aug 23, 2011 9:23:53 GMT -5
Your next preview has us flipping the calendar to September and Labor Day weekend.......
Last 3 shows played: 80s...80, 83, 82
70s...........78, 79, 74
SXM...........70, 74, 77
Shows played last 3 years: 80s.....9/1/84 last year, 9/3/83, 9/4/82
70s............9/5/70 last year, 9/2/72, 9/6/75
SXM............9/3/77 last year, 9/2/72, 9/1/79
Guest hosted shows: 9/2/78, 9/6/80 (ironically both years are being played this week)
Longest current drought: 80s....81
70s...........71
SXM..........75 (at an even 6 months, now tied for the 4th longest drought ever)
Historic shows: 9/4/71.....features the biggest climb to #1 in the 70s or 80s
9/3/77....Elvis' "Way Down" re-debuts following his death
9/4/82....Hold Me spends its 7th week at #4, a record for any non-#1 or 2 record
9/3/83....Michael Jackson becomes the first artist to get 5 top 10 hits from the same album
9/1/84....Tina Turner sets record for the longest career wait to hit #1
Trends/patterns.....I am giving wahoo props for noticing that there were no shows played by either 70s series for 3 straight months from 1971. This marks the 4th time that such a thing has happened since the beginning of 2009 (can't go back any further since there is no data for SXM before that). The list.....
In 2009, no shows from June, July and August 1972 were played
In 2009, no shows from August, Sept, October, Nov and Dec 1974 were played (a special from Oct 1974 was played)
In 2010-11, no shows from Dec 1975, Jan and Feb 1976 were played
In 2011, no shows from June, July and August 1971 were played
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Post by jgve1952 on Aug 23, 2011 11:43:57 GMT -5
I will predict 87 for the 80's and 71 for the 70's. Thanks for the info about the song that took the biggest jump to #1. Who in the world would ever believe that after a massive jump like that, it would drop to #5 the following week???!!!!
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Post by dukelightning on Aug 24, 2011 12:40:30 GMT -5
Dukedeb- Here are some old shows from 2008 I pasted from the XM thread. August 27: AT40 Countdown from August 19, 1972 (XM 70s on 7) August 30 (repeated on September 3): AT40 Countdown from August 29, 1970 (70s on 7) September 6: AT40 from September 1, 1979 (one of the last shows to use "Shuckatoom Theme" as closing music). (XM 70s on 7). XM ran the 9/13/75 countdown yesterday. Thanks for the info. As a result of that info, we can now say that the 2 earliest not aired shows other than the second which cannot be aired, have both aired this year. Premiere played the show from 8/1/70 and SXM will be playing the show from 8/22/70 this week. The earliest show not aired is now the one for 9/26/70. |
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Post by matt on Aug 24, 2011 14:35:51 GMT -5
XM ran the 9/13/75 countdown yesterday. OK...did they really run an AT40 countdown yesterday--as in Tuesday? |
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Post by dukelightning on Aug 30, 2011 9:04:00 GMT -5
It's that time of the week again folks and next week features a huge anniversary for those of us that are in the US. I know some of you are not which is fine and it's great that you listen to AT40.
Last 3 shows played: 80s...85, 80, 83
70s..............71, 78, 79
SXM............77, 70, 74
Shows played last 3 years: 80s...9/14/85 last year, 9/8/84, 9/13/80, 9/17/83
70s...........9/8/73 and 9/13/75 last year, 9/11/71, 9/12/70, 9/14/74
SXM..........9/7/74 last year, 9/8/73, 9/13/75
Guest hosted shows: 9/8/79, 9/12/81, 9/11/82, 9/15/84, 9/12/87
For the 80s, if they are not to play a show/year aired in the last 3 years/weeks and stay within the confines of the date, there is only one show available and that is 9/13/86
Longest current drought: 80s.....81
70s..................77
SXM..............75 (now the 4th longest drought ever and 2nd longest on SXM)
Historic shows: 9/12/70...first time Casey mentions songs falling out of top 40
9/11/71....Go Away Little Girl becomes first remake of a #1 song to hit #1
9/9/72.....first time top 10 is entirely by male artists (in AT40 history)
9/14/74.....first 70s show ever played by Premiere
9/14/85....show in which Casey made his 'Dead Dog Long Distance Dedication'
Trends/patterrns: Assuming a show from this month in 1981 is played, here are all the months not played on Premiere. Data for SXM cannot be compiled because of incomplete show data.
December 1974
October 1975
November 1978
February 1979
April 1979
September 1979
October 1979
December 1979
May 1984
July 1987 (regular shows)
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Post by matt on Aug 31, 2011 14:15:27 GMT -5
dukedeb--a couple of things. First of all, thanks for putting this together each week--it is quite fun to read through. Second, a question and an observation regarding your latest edition: Guest hosted shows: 9/8/79, 9/12/81, 9/11/82, 9/15/84, 9/12/87 -Do you have who the guest host was for the 9/15/84 show? My usual source Walt Bailey's Old Radio Shows doesn't say... For the 80s, if they are not to play a show/year aired in the last 3 years/weeks and stay within the confines of the date, there is only one show available and that is 9/13/86 The "confines of the chart date" typically stretch 4 days (on occasion 5 days, such as the 8/1/70 show played on 8/6/11, and the 5/19/79 show played on 5/14/11). This would also make the 9/6/86 show available (by comparison, the last '86 show was the 8/2/86 show played on 8/6/11). Given that, I made the 9/6/86 show my first guess for next week... |
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Post by Big Red Machine on Aug 31, 2011 14:44:21 GMT -5
Guest hosted shows: 9/8/79, 9/12/81, 9/11/82, 9/15/84, 9/12/87 -Do you have who the guest host was for the 9/15/84 show? My usual source Walt Bailey's Old Radio Shows doesn't say... Charlie Van Dyke hosted the 9/15/84 show. |
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