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Post by Mike on Feb 13, 2022 0:05:11 GMT -5
This is AT40’s power point formula as explained by Rob Durkee: “AT40's power point formula is based on each song's top 50 chart run. One point for a week at #50, 2 for a week at #49 etc. This works OK until you get to #11 (40 points). A few bonus points are given for songs making the top 10. Thus, a song with a week at #10 gets 42 points, 44 for a week at #9, #8 is 46 weeks, #7 48 points and at #6, 50 points. For a week at #5, it's 52, a week at #4 is 54, a week at #3 is 56 points and a week at #2 is 58 points. finally, here's the # of points a song gets for each week at #1...Yes, 80 points for a week at #1, 170 for 2 weeks at #1 and with 14 weeks, it's 2030. Bonus pt. system: 1-80 pts. total; 2-170; 3-270; 4-380; 5-500; 6-630; 7-770; 8-920; 9-1080; 10-1250; 11-1430; 12-1620; 13-1820; 14-2030.” – R. Durkee There's one thing I don't understand with regards to this formula - where does #1 having a total point value of 80 points come from? Inverse rank/Reverse rank is obvious, and for the rest of the Top 10 there is an additional Top 10 reverse rank applied for the bonus points. (#10 = 41 + 1, #9 = 42 + 2, #8 = 43 + 3, and so on.) For the weeks at #1, there's also definitely one final reverse layer applied as well, if a 1-week #1 gets 80 points, a 2-week #1 gets 170, a 3-week #1 gets 270, etc. What I'm missing is how to get to the 1-week #1 getting 80 points. (Actually, one other question to clarify: Is this a song gets 80 points in its first week at #1 and then 170 in its second week, or is the bonus figure something added on after a song finishes its run at #1?) Apply the first two layers gets me #1 = 50 points + 10 more points for the Top 10 bonus layer, making 60. That leaves 20 additional points with no other rhyme or reason - an arbitrarily-decided bonus layer, perhaps?
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Post by vince on Feb 13, 2022 20:19:12 GMT -5
This is how the 80 points for the first week at #1 are arrived at. As already mentioned, 50 points come from the reverse rank of the top 50 and another 10 points come from the reverse rank of the top 10. The other 20 points are additional bonus points for the records first week at #1. The #1 bonus points for AT40's 1982 methodology (The AT40 Power Point formula) seem to be based on the number of weeks at #1 multiplied by 10 plus the sum of the weeks at #1 multiplied by 10. So for 1 week at #1 that is 20 points. Two weeks at #1 would get 2 times 10 points plus 1+2=3 * 10 points for a total of 50 points. The bonus points can be calculated for any number of weeks by the following formula (n^2+3*n)*5, where n is the # of weeks at #1. For more information on AT40's 1982 methodology I am attaching this memo with explanation of the methodology and the explanation why AT40 created it. Rank Formula.pdf (134.57 KB)
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Post by Mike on Feb 15, 2022 1:57:38 GMT -5
OK, after reading all that, it now makes sense.
Out of curiosity, the formula for the #1 bonus - the (n^2+3*n)*5, where n is the # of weeks at #1 [for raw math calculation]. Did that also come from Rob, or did you manage to figure that out on your own?
I was at first struggling with where Rob's point figures came from, but it turns out that the #1 bonus is a one-time bonus that gets added on at the end, rather than from week to week. The #1 bonus being added one time based on its cumulative stay threw me because I've never dealt with year-end tabulations where a bonus component worked that way before, and it didn't help that Rob's point figures were end results rather than figures where it would get X on a given week for being at its Nth week at #1.
In any case, that plays out like this:
Each week, a #1 song will get 50 points from the base reverse rank, and then 10 more points from the Top 10 inverse rank.
If that was its only week on top, it'd get 50 + 10 + 20 for a total of 80 points that come from its entire stay at #1. If it had 2 weeks on top, it'd get: 50 + 10 + 50 + 10 (accounting for two weeks worth of reverse ranks) + 50, for a total of 170 points that come from its entire stay at #1. If it had 3 weeks on top, it'd get: 50 + 10 + 50 + 10 + 50 + 10 (three weeks of reverse rank) + 90, for a total of 270.
And so on, and so forth.
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jebsib
Junior Member
Posts: 95
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Post by jebsib on Feb 21, 2022 13:39:59 GMT -5
Vince - I am very late to the party and apologize if you have covered this somewhere, but is there an authoritative list published confirming BB YE issue dates and - particularly - the survey periods covered?
I have many of them and will gladly share if needed, but am having particular problems finding survey dates for the years 1978, 79, 80, and many of the very early 60's.
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Post by OnWithTheCountdown on Feb 21, 2022 14:39:49 GMT -5
Vince - I am very late to the party and apologize if you have covered this somewhere, but is there an authoritative list published confirming BB YE issue dates and - particularly - the survey periods covered? I have many of them and will gladly share if needed, but am having particular problems finding survey dates for the years 1978, 79, 80, and many of the very early 60's. If I'm reading your question correctly, I think the survey period question may be answered in this thread, if you look back through it. It won't have the 1960s, but 1978-1980 are in here. Here's a link to past Billboard issues through 2017. The year-end issues are usually one of the final two issues in a calendar year.
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Post by Mike on Feb 21, 2022 17:10:11 GMT -5
Vince - I am very late to the party and apologize if you have covered this somewhere, but is there an authoritative list published confirming BB YE issue dates and - particularly - the survey periods covered? I have many of them and will gladly share if needed, but am having particular problems finding survey dates for the years 1978, 79, 80, and many of the very early 60's. If I'm reading your question correctly, I think the survey period question may be answered in this thread, if you look back through it. It won't have the 1960s, but 1978-1980 are in here. Here's a link to past Billboard issues through 2017. The year-end issues are usually one of the final two issues in a calendar year. If he's looking for Billboard survey periods, then at40fg.proboards.com/thread/4951/billboards-singles-charts-revised-versions would be a better bet, as some of the survey periods given in THIS thread are AT40's own rather than Billboard's (one example: 1973). But only vince would know without any of us checking whether all the stated surveys were printed each year, or whether he based them off of what would be Billboard's standard practice of the time. (Also, on some of the earlier ones, like in the 60s, he does two or three listings of some given years, as he attempted re-rankings for some years based on what would have been an extended survey period compared to what Billboard actually used.) ETA: That said, one of the stated "problem areas", 1978-80, are in the thread I linked. For the early 60s, he states a survey period used, but it's not clear whether, yes that was Billboard's survey, or rather it was just what he used. (He simply says "the survey period is X to Y" until 1968.)
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Post by vince on Feb 22, 2022 21:53:25 GMT -5
Here are dates of BB's survey periods as I can tell from 1959 though 1991. Some were identified in the YE issue. Others years they made no mention of dates of survey period, so I had to fugure it out.
1959: Jan. '59 to Nov. '59 (Issue does not state exact dates.) 1960: Assumed Jan. '60 to Nov. '60 1961: Jan. '61 to Nov. '61 (Issue does not state exact dates.) 1962: 1/7/62 - 10/27/62 1963: 1/5/63 - 11/30/63 1964: 1/4/64 - 12/12/64 1965: 1/2/65 - 10/30/65 1966: 1/1/66 - 12/10/66 1967: 1/7/67 - 12/16/67 1968: 1/6/68 - 12/21/68 1969: 1/4/69 - 12/13/69
1970: 1/3/70 - 11/28/70 1971: 1/2/71 - 11/27/71 1972: 12/4/71 - 11/18/72 1973: 11/25/72 - 11/17/73 1974: 11/27/73 - 10/26/74 1975: 11/2/74 - 11/1/75 1976: 11/8/75 - 10/30/76 1977: 11/6/76 - 10/29/77 1978: 11/5/77 - 10/28/78 1979: 10/21/78 - 10/20/79
1980: 10/6/79 - 9/27/80 1981: 11/1/80 - 10/24/81 1982: 10/31/81 - 10/30/82 1983: 11/6/82 - 10/29/83 1984: 11/5/83 - 11/17/84 1985: 11/17/84 - 12/7/85 (stated in issue); really is 11/24/84 - 11/30/85 1986: 11/17/85 - 12/6/86 (stated in issue); really is 12/7/85 - 11/29/86 1987: 12/6/86 - 12/5/87 (stated in issue); really is 12/6/86 - 11/28/87 1988: 12/5/87 - 12/3/88 (stated in issue); really is 12/5/87 - 11/26/88 1989: 12/3/88 - 12/2/89
1990: 11/18/89 - 11/17/90 1991: 11/24/90 - 11/23/91
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Post by Mike on Dec 24, 2022 0:28:24 GMT -5
With year-end countdown season kicking off this weekend (at least, on the current side of things), we'd normally be expecting to see this thread bumped up before too much longer. But this year, I'm going to take the liberty of bringing it up a few days ahead of schedule - as instead, I'm going to offer some additional material to browse through. We've never really ventured past the Hot 100 years, ending at 1991 - but that time period is one I've been more and more interested in exploring over time. To that end, this year I will be unveiling calculations for the two Mainstream Top 40 years before AT40 ceased production for three years, those being 1993 and 1994. (The Top 40 Radio Monitor year, 1992, won't be posted this year - at least not by me - as I don't have that year fully calculated yet. Once it's done, I'll add that one too.) We know that AT40 compiled both year's countdowns themselves and we know what those countdowns are. For 1993, I've mentioned a couple of times my hunch that AT40 used the Billboard Top 40/Mainstream charts - beginning even at that chart's inception, 10/3/92 - to calculate that year's survey. So, what I'll be posting for that year will reflect that being the case. For 1994, the purpose is different - because they only aired a Top 50 for the year. What I'll be posting is a full Top 100. Calculations continue to use the AT40 Power Point formula, introduced in 1982. (But unlike any previous year, since this chart only ever went down to 40, there were no positions #41-50 to derive bottom-level points from.) Both years will have calculations posted where the songs were credited for chart points over their full run. For 1993, this will be the only one posted. 1994 will have an additional version posted where points were only credited through the end of the calendar year. (1993 will also have one song that was NOT credited for its full run, which I will explain about there.) Since Shadoe didn't mention any kind of survey period for either year, I deferred to using Billboard's own survey eligibility period for each year, which in both cases was what would become their new standard, a simple December-to-November. For 1993, this is 12/5/92 to 11/27/93, for 1994 it is 12/4/93 to 11/26/94. Without further ado...here we go!
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Post by Mike on Dec 24, 2022 0:29:40 GMT -5
Here is 1993, with songs credited for their full chart run (even including weeks extending into 1994). This matches what vince did for 1982, 83, and 84, the other years he's posted where AT40 used the Power Point formula - and, of course, the reason is the same: To use actual points for the later periods where points would otherwise have been estimated by AT40. I will address some of the song inclusion decisions that AT40 would have made in a follow-up post, as well as the situation regarding "All That She Wants", which I did not credit for its full lifespan as it is plainly clear that AT40 also did not estimate accordingly.
The numbers also bear out my long-held belief of AT40 utilizing the Billboard Mainstream charts rather than the Top 40 Radio Monitor charts to count song weeks from the 1992 calendar year, as there are simply way too many songs that line up in order matching what the countdown rankings were for this not to be the case. (And, of course, it explains "Drive" ranking in the survey despite its only being counted down for 8 weeks and never above #30.) There are some math discrepancies, the biggest being for "Good Enough" and "Where You Goin' Now", but otherwise the vast majority of position differences are what you'd expect - estimated vs. actual points (which results in some dramatic differences, such as with "Wild World").
With the charts heading more into an era where a song's total chart lifespan made ever more of a difference, for the 1993 and 1994 postings I will also list the total number of weeks a song spent on the chart. This may not reflect weeks spent in the countdown; songs that debuted in 1992 (*) will have that noted accordingly. There are also a few songs whose Mainstream chart peak was never actually counted down on the show (@); these are also noted.
Points POS. TITLE-Artist (Peak Position-Peak Month-Weeks Charted)
1728 *1 TWO PRINCES Spin Doctors (#1, April, 29 wks) 1587 *2 THAT'S THE WAY LOVE GOES Janet Jackson (#1, May, 23 wks) 1574 *3 DREAMLOVER Mariah Carey (#1, Sept, 26 wks) 1426 *4 ORDINARY WORLD Duran Duran (#1, Feb, 25* wks) 1406 *5 I WILL ALWAYS LOVE YOU Whitney Houston (#1, Dec 1992, 19* wks) 1329 *6 CAN'T HELP FALLING IN LOVE UB40 (#1, July, 26 wks) 1248 *7 ALL THAT SHE WANTS Ace of Base (#1, Oct, 13! wks) 1108 8 DO YOU BELIEVE IN US Jon Secada (#3@, Nov 1992, 30* wks) 1102 9 COME UNDONE Duran Duran (#2, June, 26 wks) 1082 10 LOOKING THROUGH PATIENT EYES P.M. Dawn (#2, May, 26 wks) 1061 11 RUNAWAY TRAIN Soul Asylum (#2, Aug, 26 wks) 991 12 WHAT IS LOVE Haddaway (#4, Nov, 26 wks) 978 13 THAT'S WHAT LOVE CAN DO Boy Krazy (#2, March, 26 wks) 966 14 DON'T WALK AWAY Jade (#5, May, 26 wks) 959 15 LOVE IS Vanessa Williams & Brian McKnight (#2, April, 23 wks) 921 16 IF Janet Jackson (#2, Sept, 26 wks) 910 17 FAITHFUL Go West (#3, Feb, 26 wks) 897 18 7 Prince & The New Power Generation (#3, Feb, 26 wks) 888 19 THE RIVER OF DREAMS Billy Joel (#2, Oct, 26 wks) 888 20 RHYTHM IS A DANCER Snap! (#12@, Jan, 29* wks) 885 21 NO RAIN Blind Melon (#4, Oct, 26 wks) 860 22 IN THE STILL OF THE NITE Boyz II Men (#2, Dec 1992, 21* wks) 859 23 I'D DO ANYTHING FOR LOVE (BUT I WON'T DO THAT) Meat Loaf (#2, Nov, 21 wks) 803 *24 A WHOLE NEW WORLD Peabo Bryson & Regina Belle (#1, Feb, 20* wks) 802 25 GOOD ENOUGH Bobby Brown (#5@, Dec 1992, 22* wks) 801 26 OOH CHILD Dino (#4, Aug, 21 wks) 794 27 IF I HAD NO LOOT Tony! Toni! Tone! (#5, Aug, 23 wks) 788 28 WEAK SWV (#2, July, 20 wks) 783 29 THE RIGHT KIND OF LOVE Jeremy Jordan (#4, April, 24 wks) 772 30 WHEN SHE CRIES Restless Heart (#4, Feb, 22* wks) 769 31 I'LL NEVER GET OVER YOU (GETTING OVER ME) Expose (#3, July, 21 wks) 754 32 SWEAT (A LA LA LA LA LONG) Inner Circle (#8, Oct, 24 wks) 711 33 HAVE I TOLD YOU LATELY Rod Stewart (#4, June, 18 wks) 699 34 I'M EVERY WOMAN Whitney Houston (#3, March, 19 wks) 698 35 SHOW ME LOVE Robin S. (#5, Aug, 23 wks) 687 36 SAVING FOREVER FOR YOU Shanice (#6, Feb, 20* wks) 684 37 TWO STEPS BEHIND Def Leppard (#5, Oct, 19** wks) 683 38 CRYIN' Aerosmith (#11, Oct, 25 wks) 679 39 FREAK ME Silk (#7, June, 21 wks) 677 40 BABY I'M YOURS Shai (#12, Sept, 23 wks) 676 41 BED OF ROSES Bon Jovi (#5, March, 18 wks) 667 42 I'M GONNA BE (500 MILES) The Proclaimers (#3, Aug, 19 wks) 660 43 I HAVE NOTHING Whitney Houston (#3, April, 17 wks) 656 44 IF I EVER FALL IN LOVE Shai (#5@, Jan, 20* wks) 656 45 ANOTHER SAD LOVE SONG Toni Braxton (#7, Oct, 21 wks) 656 46 ANGEL Jon Secada (#9, May, 23 wks) 645 47 IF I EVER LOSE MY FAITH IN YOU Sting (#4, April, 18 wks) 628 48 RIGHT HERE/HUMAN NATURE SWV (#4, Oct, 18 wks) 627 49 I DON'T WANNA FIGHT Tina Turner (#6, Aug, 20 wks) 615 50 WILL YOU BE THERE Michael Jackson (#3, Sept, 17 wks) 608 51 DEEPER AND DEEPER Madonna (#2, Jan, 14* wks) 588 52 TO LOVE SOMEBODY Michael Bolton (#6@, Jan, 17 wks) 576 53 MR. WENDAL Arrested Development (#10, March, 21* wks) 567 54 WALK ON THE OCEAN Toad the Wet Sprocket (#10, Jan, 18* wks) 563 55 RAIN Madonna (#7, Sept, 16 wks) 549 56 LOVE IS ON THE WAY Saigon Kick (#9@, Nov 1992, 19* wks) 545 57 LAYLA Eric Clapton (#4@, Nov 1992, 15* wks) 544 58 BREAK IT DOWN AGAIN Tears For Fears (#10, Sept, 18 wks) 506 59 WHAT'S UP 4 Non Blondes (#15, July, 19 wks) 502 60 GIVE IT UP, TURN IT LOOSE (#10, Feb, 18* wks) 498 61 WHO IS IT Michael Jackson (#6, May, 13 wks) 494 62 LITTLE MISS CAN'T BE WRONG Spin Doctors (#12@, Dec 1992, 17* wks) 491 63 I'M SO INTO YOU SWV (#12, June, 18 wks) 478 64 CONNECTED Stereo MCs (#11, May, 16 wks) 471 65 WHERE YOU GOIN' NOW d**n Yankees (#10@, Dec 1992, 15* wks) 469 66 NOTHIN' MY LOVE CAN'T FIX Joey Lawrence (#10, May, 16 wks) 455 67 REGRET New Order (#7, June, 14 wks) 452 68 CATS IN THE CRADLE Ugly Kid Joe (#11, March, 16 wks) 448 69 MORE AND MORE Captain Hollywood Project (#13, July, 16 wks) 433 70 NEVER A TIME Genesis (#12@, Jan, 17* wks) 423 71 BETTER THAN YOU Lisa Keith (#12, Nov, 16 wks) 416 72 INFORMER Snow (#12, April, 14 wks) 415 73 HEY JEALOUSY Gin Blossoms (#20, Oct, 19 wks) 410 74 CAN'T GET ENOUGH OF YOUR LOVE Taylor Dayne (#8, July, 12 wks) 406 75 MAN ON THE MOON R.E.M. (#9, March, 13 wks) 401 76 BAD BOYS Inner Circle (#7, June, 12 wks) 384 77 WANNAGIRL Jeremy Jordan (#11, July, 13 wks) 360 78 STEAM Peter Gabriel (#13, Jan, 12* wks) 357 79 LATELY Jodeci (#17, Sept, 14 wks) 356 80 IN THESE ARMS Bon Jovi (#14, July, 12 wks) 352 81 HERE WE GO AGAIN! Portrait (#12, March, 13* wks) 345 82 THE CRYING GAME Boy George (#11, April, 11 wks) 339 83 I'M FREE Jon Secada (#12, Aug, 12 wks) 336 84 WILD WORLD Mr. Big (#12, Nov, 12 wks) 327 85 ONE LAST CRY Brian McKnight (#19, Sept, 14 wks) 323 86 LIVIN' ON THE EDGE Aerosmith (#19, June, 13 wks) 311 87 SLEEPING SATELLITE Tasmin Archer (#16, June, 12 wks) 305 88 NO MISTAKES Patti Smyth (#15, Feb, 12 wks) 305 89 PLUSH Stone Temple Pilots (#18, Sept, 14 wks) 301 90 BOTH SIDES OF THE STORY Phil Collins (#8, Dec*, 9** wks) 298 91 LOVE U MORE Sunscreem (#16, April, 11 wks) 297 92 EVERYBODY HURTS R.E.M. (#13, Nov, 11 wks) 279 93 SIMPLE LIFE Elton John (#17, April, 11 wks) 278 94 REASON TO BELIEVE Rod Stewart (#24, Oct, 13 wks) 251 95 DRIVE R.E.M. (#23@, Dec 1992, 12* wks) 249 96 FIELDS OF GOLD Sting (#24, July, 12 wks) 244 97 SOMEBODY TO LOVE George Michael & Queen (#15, May, 9 wks) 240 98 GET AWAY Bobby Brown (#17, March, 9 wks) 240 99 FOREVER IN LOVE Kenny G (#18, April, 10 wks) 239 100 THE MORNING PAPERS Prince & The New Power Generation (#18, May, 9 wks)
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