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Post by blackbowl68 on Nov 4, 2012 11:59:35 GMT -5
On this week's AT40: the 80's show, John Lennon debuted with his first chart single in five years, "(Just Like) Starting Over." This song was surging up the chart when the unthinkable happened on December 8th: John was shot and killed by a crazed fan outside his Manhattan home. As a result, "(Just Like) Starting Over" become #1 the very next tracking week, staying on top for 5 weeks. (In England, "Imagine" was also re-issued and also hit #1 there.) These are the facts
Because this Saturday is Daylight Savings Time in the US, I am posing this big WHAT IF question:
How would "(Just Like) Starting Over" have done on the Billboard charts had Lennon still been alive to watch it run its course?
I have my educated guesses on this, but I'd like to hear from others.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 4, 2012 12:04:02 GMT -5
If not with that single, Lennon should have a massive number 1 sooner or later, because he was a talented genius. The same way Paul and George did later than 1980.
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Post by chrislc on Nov 4, 2012 12:14:33 GMT -5
Hard to say - I think More Than I Can Say would probably have been not strong enough to keep it out, but Love On The Rocks probably would have made #1 instead of Starting Over.
Or - Lady might have hung on for another week or two or three - then Lionel would have written 18 weeks of #1 songs in less than a year, which would have been Gibb-like. Heck 15 weeks was pretty impressive anyway.
So a Bobby Vee song and a Beatle and Neil Diamond battling it out - a blast from the past.
Wouldve been.
Shouldve been.
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Post by mga707 on Nov 4, 2012 12:19:22 GMT -5
This is an interesting question, and one that I also have pondered. After looking over the charts for the period, here's my opinion: The week that Lennon was murdered, "(JL)SO" was at #4 and rising. The following week, which would not yet include sales/airplay data for many days after he was shot, the song rose one position to #3. The following week, or two weeks, since it includes the 'dead week' at the end of the year, the song did hit #1. This week would be all be reflective of sales and airplay after he was killed, which probably helped it go from #3 to #1, rather than #2.
My opinion is that had Lennon not been murdered, the song would probably have hit #1, since it appered to have the momentum to do so. However, it would not have stayed at #1 for 5 weeks (4 weeks if one does not count the 'dead week'). Probably only one week or two. "More Than I Can Say" and/or "Love On the Rocks" would probably have hit #1 if this had been the case.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 4, 2012 12:20:07 GMT -5
On this week's AT40: the 80's show, John Lennon debuted with his first chart single in five years, "(Just Like) Starting Over." This song was surging up the chart when the unthinkable happened on December 8th: John was shot and killed by a crazed fan outside his Manhattan home. As a result, "(Just Like) Starting Over" become #1 the very next tracking week, staying on top for 5 weeks. (In England, "Imagine" was also re-issued and also hit #1 there.) These are the facts Because this Saturday is Daylight Savings Time in the US, I am posing this big WHAT IF question: How would "(Just Like) Starting Over" have done on the Billboard charts had Lennon still been alive to watch it run its course?I have my educated guesses on this, but I'd like to hear from others. I do not think it would have hit #1 just as I don't think MTV would have pronounced "Smells Like Teen Spirit" the top video of all time/song of the 90s if not for Cobain's death. I realize the latter is probably just them doing it because and the Lennon song was data actually compiled but I think it's the same sort of mentality. I'm sure it was played and purchased in the short term after his death just as it has happened when other artists have died. |
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Post by dukelightning on Nov 4, 2012 12:51:13 GMT -5
As I have stated previously, the chart date corresponds with data from 2 weeks prior to that date. So on the chart of 12/20, when "Staring Over" was at #3, it corresponds with chart data through 12/6 or 12/7. It held a star that week. The following week would therefore be the first week reflecting airplay and sales after his death. On that week, "More Than I Can Say" held at #2 but lost its star. So Lennon's song would have hit #1 the same week regardless. I do think that his stay on top would have been shorter than 5 weeks allowing "Love on the Rocks" to hit #1.
Ironically, these songs debuted on the Hot 100 in the top 40 the same week as heard on this week's show.
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Post by mga707 on Nov 4, 2012 14:02:56 GMT -5
As I have stated previously, the chart date corresponds with data from 2 weeks prior to that date. So on the chart of 12/20, when "Staring Over" was at #3, it corresponds with chart data through 12/6 or 12/7. It held a star that week. The following week would therefore be the first week reflecting airplay and sales after his death. On that week, "More Than I Can Say" held at #2 but lost its star. So Lennon's song would have hit #1 the same week regardless. I do think that his stay on top would have been shorter than 5 weeks allowing "Love on the Rocks" to hit #1. Ironically, these songs debuted on the Hot 100 in the top 40 the same week as heard on this week's show. So basically, we agree. I was using "Ultimate Music Database" chart dates, which as it turns out are a day off. After checking my Whitburn reference book, I see your 12/20 week ending date is correct. So I do concur with you that the first week reflecting sales and airplay after Lennon's murder would be the w/e 12/27 chart. |
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Post by mga707 on Nov 4, 2012 14:32:29 GMT -5
And a related "what if?": Would "Woman" have been as big of a follow-up hit?
I think it would have. To me, "Woman" had a more 1980/81 sound than "(JL)SO". To me, the latter song would not have sounded out of place on '74's "Walls and Bridges", whereas "Woman" sounds more contemporary and '80/'81 radio friendly. JMHO, of course...
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Post by tarobe on Nov 4, 2012 16:02:06 GMT -5
I've thought about this for over 30 years now. I don't believe "Starting Over" would have hit #1. I've always said that it would have stalled at #4 or perhaps maybe hit #3. If the chart data says that #3 is where it was when Lennon died, then it would have hit #3, becoming his third #3 hit. Anyways it would not have hit the top. I believe that "Woman," which was already being considered the followup, would have hit #1. As for 'Watching the Wheels," I doubt it would have been as big as it was, and might not have been released as a single at all.
Although "Starting Over" got considerable airplay, after the album came out tracks like "I'm Losing You" and "Cleanup Time" were spun heavily on the AOR stations. After Lennon died, the single began getting more airplay again.
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Post by tarobe on Nov 4, 2012 16:09:46 GMT -5
I remember hearing "(Just Like) Starting Over" on the radio the very day it was released in October 1980. I was disappointed. Very commercial, too fifty-ish and doo-woppy. Nothing like I expected from him. I had long awaited for something new from Lennon, which I KNEW would come out someday.
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Post by mga707 on Nov 4, 2012 16:46:18 GMT -5
(Warning: Thread creep!)
Speaking of "(Just Like) Starting Over", as a commercial aviation expert and enthusiast, I've always tried to make out the flight announcement at the end of the song. I can make out what I think is "(unintelligible)Airlines, Flight 12, (unintelligible)service to Las Vegas", but have never been able to ID the airline name at the start of the announcement. I think that the carrier name and the trademarked service name were probably intentionally garbled in the studio. If the announcement is real it could not have been recorded at an NYC-area airport, as Flight 12 (even number) indicates an eastbound flight. Maybe recorded at LAX, who knows. I know, I need a life...
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Post by Deleted on Nov 4, 2012 17:14:57 GMT -5
(Warning: Thread creep!) Speaking of "(Just Like) Starting Over", as a commercial aviation expert and enthusiast, I've always tried to make out the flight announcement at the end of the song. I can make out what I think is "(unintelligible)Airlines, Flight 12, (unintelligible)service to Las Vegas", but have never been able to ID the airline name at the start of the announcement. I think that the carrier name and the trademarked service name were probably intentionally garbled in the studio. If the announcement is real it could not have been recorded at an NYC-area airport, as Flight 12 (even number) indicates an eastbound flight. Maybe LAX, who knows. I know, i need a life...  football is on. |
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Post by mga707 on Nov 4, 2012 17:20:56 GMT -5
football is on. Yawn...  |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 4, 2012 17:23:39 GMT -5
Oh. You watched the Jaguars game too?
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Post by mga707 on Nov 4, 2012 17:34:33 GMT -5
Oh. You watched the Jaguars game too? If they are an NFL team, I've honestly never heard of them. Are they new? I just recently learned that the Tennessee Titans were an actual team, as I'd never heard of them either. Unfortunately, I have heard of the Cardinals. No one in the state outside of Phoenix likes them...but then no one in the state outside of Phoenix likes Phoenix either! ;D |
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football is on.