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Post by K.M. Richards on Oct 21, 2024 19:41:24 GMT -5
Because of the first weekend of November 2024 being 11/2/1985, here's my revived thing of predictions for the rest of the November-December 2024 AT40 standalones paired with Christmas B shows: November 9-10, 2024: November 12, 1983 (last played in 2019) November 16-17, 2024: November 17, 1984 (last played in 2017) November 23-24, 2024: November 22, 1980 (last played in 2016) November 30-December 1, 2024: November 27, 1982 (last played in 2014) December 7-8, 2024: December 6, 1986 (last played in 2019) December 14-15, 2024: December 19, 1981 (last played in 2016) December 21-22, 2024: December 24, 1983 (last played in 2018) AND FOR THE YEAR ENDER for the last weekend of December 2024 and the first weekend of January 2025: The Top 100 of 1987 - It will have at least 1 Debbie Gibson song in it after Premiere avoided shows with "Only In My Dreams" in it this year in 2024. There goes hope for 11/30/1985 to be played in November 2024/December 2024 becuase the first weekend of November 2024 is 11/2/1985! K.M.: I made a last minute switcheroo for my predictions.
Okay, let's see how much closer you're getting. Every time you do a "switcheroo" it gets your mind into more of an analytical state, and I bet you're going to have a better batting average after this exercise. (And believe me, I get why you and the others like to predict ... it adds to the experience of hearing the shows themselves.)
Three of the four shows in November are correct, but in one case you have the incorrect air date. Two of your December year predictions are correct, and one is the correct show, but none of the air dates are. I think that's quite an improvement in your evaluations.
I'm not commenting on the year end, because eventually you'll see whether you were right or wrong as you line things back up.
And, of course, you are completely right about 11/30/85 and your logic there is perfect.
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Post by LC on Oct 21, 2024 20:24:52 GMT -5
Within the contractual limitations by Premiere, I will be happy to answer any and all questions about the program from my own experience of running it on KRKE for the past year. Okay, I'll throw out a couple. In general, how does Premiere decide what shows to air? Why do some years get skipped for 3+ months, while other years pop up 3-4 weeks apart? |
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Post by K.M. Richards on Oct 21, 2024 20:54:18 GMT -5
Within the contractual limitations by Premiere, I will be happy to answer any and all questions about the program from my own experience of running it on KRKE for the past year. Okay, I'll throw out a couple. In general, how does Premiere decide what shows to air? Why do some years get skipped for 3+ months, while other years pop up 3-4 weeks apart?
Now there, ya got me, LC. Like pretty much the rest of you, I have looked in vain for any pattern that would give me a clue.
I do know that, with the exceptions that you already know as well as I, shows that were guest hosted are removed from consideration. I have always presumed that Premiere does that because these are of course marketed as "American Top 40 with Casey Kasem" and not "American Top 40, hosted this week by Keri Tombazian" (to give an example). The exceptions, of course, are pretty much always triggered by the passing of a guest host, and are only offered to stations as a "bonus" program, so you still probably won't hear 99% of those.
I have noticed a pattern of sorts during November and December, but it doesn't answer your question. It does help in predicting what the year end countdown year will be, though.
If it makes you feel any better, Premiere's apparently random selection process does give those of us who run the "B" shows a headache when they choose a year that will be the same as the "A" show a couple of weeks later. (That may be part of what you said about years that pop-up 3-4 weeks apart.)
There is what I think is another factor involved, and that is the possibility that when they repeat years close together, they may be comparing charts for the weeks in question looking for a high number of drops from the first week and adds in the second. But so far, I haven't seen a pattern there either.
I have a feeling, though, given the way the Classic Hits format is evolving, that eventually it's going to be a case where the core shows are going to be 1983 through 1988, with 1980-81-82 being the "B" shows when the "A" show is 1986-87-88. Perhaps by then they will settle into some kind of sequence for rotating years.
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Post by SFGuy on Oct 22, 2024 1:32:01 GMT -5
Thanks for your reply. So based on various factors such as top 40/CHR radio programming, the splintering or not of genres and intuitionally(is that a word?!), the popularity or not of countdowns, the mid 80s is the sweet spot for rebroadcasts of shows. You're most welcome, and I think that your presumption above is correct, based on my own experience (which includes monitoring the airplay of other Classic Hits stations). I won't air shows older than mid-1982 and there has to be other stations with the same policy, or Premiere wouldn't be giving us the option. Their own CH station in market #4 (San Francisco, KOSF) has also shifted to "B" shows when offered.
And if "intuitionally" isn't a word, it should be.
Living in San Francisco, I will say KOSF tends to play 1982 "A" shows over "B" shows. They won't play 1980 or 1981.
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Post by K.M. Richards on Oct 22, 2024 12:44:45 GMT -5
Living in San Francisco, I will say KOSF tends to play 1982 "A" shows over "B" shows. They won't play 1980 or 1981.
I had not detected that pattern in their choices, but now that you've brought it to my attention, I'm definitely going to pay more attention. Thanks!
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Post by dukelightning on Oct 22, 2024 16:19:39 GMT -5
Somebody at Premiere must not like Debbie Gibson. By not featuring 1987 as an "A" show from 6/20/87 to this week's 10/17/87 show, Premere skipped over Debbie's entire 16 week run of "Only In My Dreams" on AT40! And... by featuring 10/17/87, it's the week that "Only In My Dreams" falls out of the Top 40 while "Shake Your Love" is one week away from being featured on AT40. Hmmmmm... This might demand an AT40 Investigation  ... For those of you anxious to know when the next '87 show might be featured, I say try not to worry about it... and when you least expect it, we'll hear an '87 show with Debbie Gibson in it out of the blue...   I think I better stick with my day job... A similar thing happened with Blue Oyster Cult. The last 1981 show was the week before "Burnin for You" debuted and this week it dropped out. The 3 weeks in between these shows it was at #40. I am aware of 3 other hits that spent 3 weeks at 40 in the 70s and 80s..."Your time to cry" by Joe Simon in 1971, "Let it be Me" by Willie Nelson in 1982 and "Don't tell me You love Me" by Night Ranger in 1983. Prior to this year, Premiere had never aired shows that bookended the stints at #40 for any of those hits. But they are now doing it for the second time this year. The first was when the 2/19/83 and 3/19/83 shows were aired. Those shows bookend the 3 weeks that Night Ranger were at 40. It also happened in 2017 though one of them was a B show. |
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Post by jmack19 on Oct 22, 2024 21:45:21 GMT -5
Premiere optional extras for 10/24/81:
"Young Turks" Rod Stewart
"Leather & Lace" Stevie Nicks & Don Henley
"Let's Groove" Earth Wind & Fire
"Trouble" Lindsey Buckingham
Premiere optional extras for 10/29/83:
"Major Tom (Coming Home)" Peter Schilling
"I Guess That's Why They Call It The Blues" Elton John
"Break My Stride" Matthew Wilder
"Holiday" Madonna
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Post by SFGuy on Oct 22, 2024 23:25:32 GMT -5
Living in San Francisco, I will say KOSF tends to play 1982 "A" shows over "B" shows. They won't play 1980 or 1981.
I had not detected that pattern in their choices, but now that you've brought it to my attention, I'm definitely going to pay more attention. Thanks!
To add, the only time KOSF plays 1980 or 1981 is during November and December since they won't play the optional Christmas shows.
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Post by K.M. Richards on Oct 22, 2024 23:46:57 GMT -5
Premiere optional extras for 10/29/83: "Major Tom (Coming Home)" Peter Schilling And it will be the merged German/English version. |
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Post by K.M. Richards on Oct 22, 2024 23:48:36 GMT -5
To add, the only time KOSF plays 1980 or 1981 is during November and December since they won't play the optional Christmas shows.
I have my own strategy about those two weeks, but you'll have to listen to find out.  |
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Post by dth1971 on Oct 23, 2024 5:52:38 GMT -5
Premiere optional extras for 10/29/83: "Major Tom (Coming Home)" Peter Schilling And it will be the merged German/English version. Casey never played a piece of the German version of "Major Tom" by Peter Schilling, I guess. I know Casey played a piece of the Spanish version of Captain and Tennille's "Love Will Keep Us Together" on the 8/9/1975 AT40 show. |
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Post by listenerwants2know on Oct 23, 2024 11:09:19 GMT -5
Of course, this could also be an order from Premiere not to announce the chosen show too early.
There's no specific "order" contractually, although affiliates do have the list in advance of which week's shows will be featured (as well as the "B" show for weeks that will feature 1980, 1981, or 1982 for stations that prefer not to run shows from those years). There is a stipulation at the top of that list that it is provided for "programming purposes only" and an admonition against posting it to "social media".
Within the confines of that, I think most stations would see limited value in announcing the specific show more than two weeks in advance. Realistically -- and you all know this or you wouldn't be here -- the core audience for the show will tune in regularly, regardless of what week is being aired.
Thank you for your answer and "Welcome on board". I also think that a real fan is not influenced by the order of release. He will always listen to the show regularly. But what I am interested in - even if it won´t be so "interesting" this year due to the date of Christmas: Will both parts of the annual countdown be in 2024 or will the second part follow - as has happened before - in the new year 2025 ? |
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Post by michaelcasselman on Oct 23, 2024 11:30:58 GMT -5
But what I am interested in - even if it won´t be so "interesting" this year due to the date of Christmas: Will both parts of the annual countdown be in 2024 or will the second part follow - as has happened before - in the new year 2025 ? I think Premiere is pretty well and set on keeping the second half of the end-of-year countdown fall on the first weekend of the new year. Since AT40 was guest hosted so often the first week (or two) most every year in the 1980s, and they make an attempt to keep the show date kinda-close to the current date of the month, that weekend taken up by the conclusion of the end of year countdown is a weekend they don't have to program a Casey-hosted show that originally fell on (for example) January 14 on a January 2/3 weekend, or a January 23 show on the weekend of the 5th/6th |
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Post by K.M. Richards on Oct 23, 2024 14:13:35 GMT -5
Thank you for your answer and "Welcome on board". I also think that a real fan is not influenced by the order of release. He will always listen to the show regularly. But what I am interested in - even if it won´t be so "interesting" this year due to the date of Christmas: Will both parts of the annual countdown be in 2024 or will the second part follow - as has happened before - in the new year 2025 ? Again, my thanks for the welcomes that I have been receiving. I feel that I have a bit of an advantage here because I have been reading all of your posts for many years and therefore feel like I already "know" most of you. That makes me much more motivated to answer your questions as best I can.
I think your theory about fans listening, regardless of which week/year is being aired, is right on the mark. At the same time, I understand the frustration that is expressed here about some shows being skipped for no apparent reason and others airing more often, again defying logic. I can only guess that the decision-making process as to the schedule does not take into account many of your justifications for why any particular show would have been a better choice than what Premiere decided to air.
In fact, to me it appears obvious that no one here has anything to do with that process. 
As to your question, I think I can safely answer that -- without giving you the year and breaking the Premiere "prime directive" on sharing show dates too far ahead of the airings -- that the year-end countdown will air over the weekends of December 28-29 and January 4-5. (Apologies to lasvegaskid for only giving the Saturday and Sunday dates.) The theory presented by michaelcasselman does make good points and may very well be part of Premiere's thought process. |
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Post by mrjukebox on Oct 23, 2024 19:25:14 GMT -5
"Crimson & Clover" & "Everyday People" are among the "AT40 Archive" songs on this week's A show presentation from 10/24/81-They were # 1 in early 1969 for Tommy James & The Shondells & Sly & The Family Stone respectively-Here's a fun fact:Joan Jett & The Blackhearts had top forty remakes of both songs-In 1982,their version of "Crimson & Clover" peaked at # 7-A year later,their rendition of "Everyday People" peaked at # 37.
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