Hypothetical question

[Timo]

How long do you think we'll have to wait until all the current songs have dropped off the AT10?
Or do you think the show is called AT5 by then?

[Topay]

Here's the current Top 10, based on this past weekend's countdown:

#10. Ain't No Mountain High Enough - Michael McDonald
#9. Dance With My Father - Luther Vandross
#8. 100 Years - Five For Fighting
#7. Drift Away - Uncle Kracker featuring Dobie Gray
#6. Calling All Angels - Train
#5. Unwell - Matchbox Twenty
#4. White Flag - Dido
#3. Forever And For Always - Shania Twain
#2. You Raise Me Up - Josh Groban
#1. The First Cut Is The Deepest - Sheryl Crow

I think the last one to fall out will be Five For Fighting. I predict that after peaking at #1, "100 Years" will fall out in November.

[Hervard]

Probably even after that. "You Raise Me Up" is the song that'll stick around until November.

And if they DARE turn the show to AT5, I am going to get really mad!

[Topay]

Looking at AT10's chart for the 7/10 weekend, here are the songs that are still on the chart from 3/20:

9. Josh Groban - You Raise Me Up
8. Uncle Kracker - Drift Away
5. Sheryl Crow - First Cut
4. Michael McDonald - Ain't No Mountain
3. Dido - White Flag
1. Five For Fighting - 100 Years

The person who predicted Josh Groban would be the last one to fall may be in danger of losing the hypothetical question (not like the winner gets a prize). At Uncle Kracker's drop rate, I wouldn't be surprised if HE fell off last.

Five For Fighting is currently #1, which makes up for the bunch of weeks "Superman" spent at #2 (AT10 almost screwed this song over, too, with the audience-based chart). We'll see how long it does last.

Just thought I'd bump this question back up.

[Hervard]

So Train fell off the survey this week, did they? That makes it four songs that have fallen off during the near-four month period that AT10 has been running. Hence, the average of one debut per month remains.

Too bad I looked at this post before listening to the show. Now I know seven of the positions (I'm nearly 100 percent sure that #2 is "This One's For The Girls"). But I won't look at it again until tomorrow - I want the debut song to be, well, sort of a surprise - I have an idea or two as to what it is.

[Hervard]

Hereafter, when posting information on an upcoming countdown, please post a warning like "SPOILER ALERT!!" That way, people who like to be surprised when listening to the countdown won't accidentally read it and spoil the surprise. Of course, when it comes to AT10, there are virtually no surprises about it (of course last week's Top Five shake-up was sort of unexpected). But still, if you have the info of a countdown that most of us haven't heard yet, please forwarn us that you're posting it. Thanks in advance

[Topay]

Sorry 'bout that. I'm usually good about that kinda thing on other TV/Countdown boards. I let my idea get ahead of my practicality. Hope everything's cool now.

[Hervard]

topay said:

The person who predicted Josh Groban would be the last one to fall may be in danger of losing the hypothetical question (not like the winner gets a prize). At Uncle Kracker's drop rate, I wouldn't be surprised if HE fell off last.

Actually, I didn't say that Josh Groban would be the last one to fall out. I said that he'd probably stick around until November (although, by the looks of things, that's probably not gonna happen. Of course he's still got about 13 weeks to go before he's booted from R&R. He'll still have a chance to re-enter the survey until about October.
Before I said Josh would probably stick around until November, I said "probably even after that", meaning the Five For Fighting song will probably remain until after November. I personally think they'll still be here after the New Year.

[Topay]

Gotcha. I didn't know what to make of the "probably even after that". Now I get your drift.

You're right. Dido and Sheryl Crow aren't going to go down without a fight. But FFF's song is considerably younger, so I'll give him the edge. It could be well into the new year before all the March '04 songs finally go away.

[Hervard]

We've already lost one song that debuted after AT10 started out ("Just For You" by Lionel Richie)

[Hervard]

Well, I was almost right about "You Raise Me Up" sticking around until November. It was below number 10 on the R&R chart and after it hit its 50th week, it was automatically dropped from the chart. That was sometime in October. Actually, "You Raise Me Up" had dropped off the AT10 chart for a few weeks, re-entered, and dropped out again the week before it was taken off the R&R chart.
Moreover, the bar has been raised from number ten to number five for the 50-week limit. This eliminates songs like "Drift Away" and "First Cut Is The Deepest", songs that would otherwise never leave the Top Ten.
Now, the songs that remain on the chart from March 20 are "100 Years" and "White Flag". While it's true that "Ain't No Mountain High Enough" was on the AT10 chart this past week, the song has reached the 50 week limit on the October 30 R&R chart, which will correspond to the AT10 chart for November 6 and, hence, won't be heard on AT10 this coming week. And, since "White Flag" has already been on the chart for 55 weeks or so, it could drop from R&R's Top Five anytime and, hence, be taken off.
So it looks like whoever predicted Five For Fighting's "100 Years" to be the last song from the first AT10 to leave the chart (essentially, every one of us) was right. That would probably hold true if the recurrent rule for the AC chart had remained at 50/10.

That said, any guesses for which week Five For Fighting will fall out of the chart?

My guess would be January 29, 2005 - my 33rd birthday.

[Topay]

I'll go with Feb. 12, 2005.