Methodology for the Hot 100

[jebsib]

I have always known that the Hot 100 blended airplay and sales (with other elements such as mp3s, streaming and juke box info thrown in depending on the era).

When I was listening to AT40 in the 80s, Casey would always say how these were the biggest songs that radio stations were playing, and record stores were selling.

However, while listening to many very early 70s AT40s, I have heard him strictly state that the countdown listed the hottest sellers in the land. Or the biggest records sold in stores. Nothing about airplay. While browsing through old Billboard articles on Google magazines last year, I noticed several articles also NOT referring to airplay at all when discussing the Hot 100. Once again, the focus was sales.

Got me wondering: Does anyone know for sure if there was a period of time before the June 1973 chart reconfiguration that the Hot 100 jettisoned radio playlist info? Or that the ratio was enormously in favor of sales? Or was Casey (and these articles) just trying to state things simply?

[doomsdaymachine]

Before the Hot 100 debuted in August 1958, Billboard published four different singles charts:

- Best Sellers in Stores
- Most Played by Disc Jockeys (discontinued in 1957)
- Most Played on Juke Boxes
- Top 100 (debuted November 1955)

When Fred Bronson wrote "The Billboard Book of #1 Hits," he began in July 1955 with "Rock Around The Clock" and used the Best Sellers in Stores chart for his pre-Hot 100 entries.

[donwa001]

I think Billboard always had the airplay component in the HOT 100 once it debuted in Aug 1958. Back in 1973, my mother worked at KJRB in Spokane WA. Once a week, Billboard magazine would call the station and ask for their Top 40 list. So the person who answered the phone (usually the Station Manager's secretary) would read off the entire Top 40 list and give them the songs that dropped off and the songs that were added that week. That data was being used by Billboard to come up with the HOT 100. I think in the early 70's Casey said there were 100 stations that Billboard contacted.

[mstgator]

Either on this board or another, I remember seeing a link to a Billboard article posted from the late '60s mentioning that they were changing the Hot 100 methodology to sales-only for the Top 50 or Top 60, with airplay data only included for songs below that. I'll have to try to find that as it actually gave a pretty good (and logical) explanation as to why. I'm not sure how long that lasted, although I'd guess airplay was added back into the entire Hot 100 no later than the methodology adjustment in 1973.

[dukelightning]

Aug 27, 2012 21:32:29 GMT -5 donwa001 said:

I think Billboard always had the airplay component in the HOT 100 once it debuted in Aug 1958. Back in 1973, my mother worked at KJRB in Spokane WA. Once a week, Billboard magazine would call the station and ask for their Top 40 list. So the person who answered the phone (usually the Station Manager's secretary) would read off the entire Top 40 list and give them the songs that dropped off and the songs that were added that week. That data was being used by Billboard to come up with the HOT 100. I think in the early 70's Casey said there were 100 stations that Billboard contacted.

Actually it was 100 record stores that Casey mentioned Billboard getting data from. The number of radio stations he mentioned was 54 and he only mentioned that for the first 5 shows. From the 6th show on until May of 1975, he mentioned airplay only once or twice. I have always wondered if this omission of airplay in the calculation of the Hot 100 for all that time was because of an actual change in the Hot 100 methodology or not. I am guessing not.

[torcan]

I always thought the Hot 100 was based on sales and airplay. It's odd that there were only 54 stations in the early '70s - it doesn't seem like that many, does it? I always thought it was about 125. Even so, that's still an average of just over 2 per state.

I wonder if Billboard figured it out like the Neilsen ratings did for so many years - 1200 people calculated into what the whole US was watching. Maybe Billboard just took enough sample data which is considered accurate.

It does seem like the charts from the early-mid '70s were configured differently though with the weird moves. Songs certainly jumped and fell quicker during that time, for whatever reason.

[mstgator]

Aug 27, 2012 22:10:30 GMT -5 mstgator said:

Either on this board or another, I remember seeing a link to a Billboard article posted from the late '60s mentioning that they were changing the Hot 100 methodology to sales-only for the Top 50 or Top 60, with airplay data only included for songs below that. I'll have to try to find that as it actually gave a pretty good (and logical) explanation as to why. I'm not sure how long that lasted, although I'd guess airplay was added back into the entire Hot 100 no later than the methodology adjustment in 1973.

Found it... from page 3 of the 5/11/68 issue:

BB SHEDS AIRPLAY FACTOR IN TOP HALF OF HOT 100

The top half of Billboard's Hot 100 chart will no longer utilize the airplay ingredient it had been using in the past because of the number of Top 40 format stations which have changed the tabulating process of their printed playlists. This part of the chart is now being tabulated solely from dealers' sales reports from 21 markets across the country.

For the past several months, Top 40 stations have been leaning toward a tighter printed playlist. Many records on their way up have been dropped from station lists making room for stronger new product, or because the station management decided the sound of the disk was not what they desired for their audience, despite the fact that there were sales in the market.

The bottom half of the "Hot 100" and the "Bubbling" chart still involves the ingredients of dealer sales reports and the Top 40 stations' printed lists. In this area of the chart, the airplay reflection is required for the newer product to enable chart movement.

With this change, in the first 50 positions, the "star performer" rating in that area is now based upon a 25 per cent increase in dealer sales reports for the individual record from one week to the next. Similarly, disks in the bottom half of the "Hot 100" chart must reflect an across-the-board increase of 25 per cent in both dealer sales reports and Top 40 airplay combined.

Now if somebody has time to research the magazine from that point forward to at least 1973...

[jebsib]

WOW!

mstgator - this is an absolutely incredible find, and one that reinforces and validates a theory that I've had for years. You're right - I'd be very interested to know when airplay was returned to the top 50... In the June 9th, 1973 issue, Billboard overhauled the Hot 100 in a major way, adding what they referred to as "a greater emphasis on radio airplay" (among other changes). Perhaps this was the return?

I am also surprised that there were only 54 stations reporting in the early 70s. Of course, this was during the so-called Top 40 crisis of the early 70s when CHR stations were tending to fracture, so maybe it was harder to find pure Top 40 stations (as it was again in the mid 1990s).

Once again - a great find, and information I'm sure even chart gurus like Paul Grein and Fred Bronson had been unaware of!

[tarobe]

Aug 28, 2012 20:06:25 GMT -5 mstgator said:

Aug 27, 2012 22:10:30 GMT -5 mstgator said:

Either on this board or another, I remember seeing a link to a Billboard article posted from the late '60s mentioning that they were changing the Hot 100 methodology to sales-only for the Top 50 or Top 60, with airplay data only included for songs below that. I'll have to try to find that as it actually gave a pretty good (and logical) explanation as to why. I'm not sure how long that lasted, although I'd guess airplay was added back into the entire Hot 100 no later than the methodology adjustment in 1973.

Found it... from page 3 of the 5/11/68 issue:

BB SHEDS AIRPLAY FACTOR IN TOP HALF OF HOT 100

The top half of Billboard's Hot 100 chart will no longer utilize the airplay ingredient it had been using in the past because of the number of Top 40 format stations which have changed the tabulating process of their printed playlists. This part of the chart is now being tabulated solely from dealers' sales reports from 21 markets across the country.

For the past several months, Top 40 stations have been leaning toward a tighter printed playlist. Many records on their way up have been dropped from station lists making room for stronger new product, or because the station management decided the sound of the disk was not what they desired for their audience, despite the fact that there were sales in the market.

The bottom half of the "Hot 100" and the "Bubbling" chart still involves the ingredients of dealer sales reports and the Top 40 stations' printed lists. In this area of the chart, the airplay reflection is required for the newer product to enable chart movement.

With this change, in the first 50 positions, the "star performer" rating in that area is now based upon a 25 per cent increase in dealer sales reports for the individual record from one week to the next. Similarly, disks in the bottom half of the "Hot 100" chart must reflect an across-the-board increase of 25 per cent in both dealer sales reports and Top 40 airplay combined.

Now if somebody has time to research the magazine from that point forward to at least 1973...

This effectively brought about an end of an era: that of the local Top 40 hit. The era of the punk/garage/psychedelic era fueled by the small independent record company. From now on Top 40 playlists would become more in line with that printed by Billboard. Previous to this, a lot of singles were local hits but not nationally, like Mouse's "A Public Execution" and the Vagrant's "Respect." Some of these local releases got onto the national Top 40 based on heavy local airplay, like the Castaways' 'Liar, Liar" and the Count Five's "Psychotic Reaction."

[pamelajaye]

I'm not too familiar with the concept of regional hits but I'm sure I have experienced them. The only thing that made me realize that they might exist (what di I know of the rest of the world when I was in HS? Not a lot) was when Aerosmith finally hit the top 40 with... I'm not sure which song, but probably Dream On. I wondered why it was in the Top 40 *now* because, just from memory, it seems that was long after WRKO or whoever was playing it in regular rotation (I *did* know rotation - or maybe just partially? - the big hits were played every 2 and a half hours. I timed it).
Of course, now I'll have to go look it up and see if that's documented (the localness part) anywhere.
My brother pointed out that At This Moment was out long before TV show exposure on Family Ties sent it up the charts.

[pamelajaye]

oh thank you Joel Whitburn for making that easy. "Originally charted @#59 in 1973"

[pamelajaye]

and apologies for not echoing
mstgator - this is an absolutely incredible find

did you dig thru piles of paper, or did you have a digital source? (and there it is, again, in my head, the image of fellow Scott Bakula fan Debbie, sitting on the floor, surrounded by piles of videotape, looking for a specific interview, back in the days of VHS)

[mstgator]

Aug 30, 2012 15:05:08 GMT -5 pamelajaye said:

and apologies for not echoing
mstgator - this is an absolutely incredible find

did you dig thru piles of paper, or did you have a digital source? (and there it is, again, in my head, the image of fellow Scott Bakula fan Debbie, sitting on the floor, surrounded by piles of videotape, looking for a specific interview, back in the days of VHS)

LOL, no old school search here... I have to tip my hat to whoever posted the original link (on some board somewhere, I still can't remember), which they found in the many issues of Billboard available at google books. I went the same route and remembered that the article was from the late '60s, so that helped some. It did take me an hour or so of trial-and-error to get just the right search terms to narrow it down to the point that I could find the right issue though ("Hot 100" didn't do the trick, naturally).

[pamelajaye]

great job then!

[pgfromwp]

^Aerosmith broke into the top 40 with "Sweet Emotion" in 1975; it's played regularly on a local classic rock station in NYC.