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Post by dukelightning on Jan 24, 2012 20:58:26 GMT -5
Trend or pattern: top 10 droughts....since there is a current drought that has made the top 10, the longest droughts between shows played is listed.
1. SXM 8/21/76 to 5/7/77...8 months, 2 weeks...2010-11 2. Premiere 5/6/72 to 12/16/72...7 months, 1 week...2009 3. Premiere 6/22/74 to 1/4/75...6 months, 2 weeks...2009-10 4. SXM 3/1/75 to 9/6/75...6 months, 1 week.....2011 5. SXM 11/18/78 to 5/19/79...6 months...2009-10 5. SXM 11/10/73 to 5/11/74...6 months...2010-11 7. SXM 7/27/74 to 1/18/75...5 months, 3 weeks...2009-10 8. SXM 1/7/78 to 6/17/78...5 months, 2 weeks...2010 9. Premiere 9/14/74 to 2/1/75...4 months, 3 weeks...2007-8 9. Premiere 3/11/78 to 7/29/78...4 months, 3 weeks...2010
FYI, the 80s series has none of the 10 longest droughts, probably because of the shorter span of available shows. Non-year end specials cannot end a drought.
To those interested in these things, the 1/27/73 show does not end the current drought on SXM that started after they played the 6/9/73 show. Because droughts go into the next year if they don't end before said year is over, they have to play an early 1974 show to end the drought. And with a later 70s show likely next week, this drought is going to reach the 8 month mark for second place on the drought list.
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Post by matt on Jan 24, 2012 22:57:37 GMT -5
7. SXM 3/1/75 to ?.....5 months, 2 weeks....2011 For the '75 drought last year, I am thinking it should be 3/1/75 - 9/6/75, which would make 6 months, 1 week correct?
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Post by matt on Jan 30, 2012 17:54:05 GMT -5
OK dukedeb--going to beat you to the punch and throw out my predictions next week: 80's - 2/13/82 70's - 2/10/79 SXM - 2/13/71
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Post by dukelightning on Jan 30, 2012 19:05:39 GMT -5
wahoo and just like you did last week, I am going to predict 2 of the shows that you predicted.....
80s....2/16/85 70s....2/10/79....this one is a lock SXM... 2/13/71
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Post by at40petebattistini on Feb 6, 2012 6:54:18 GMT -5
I'm eagerly awaiting the predictions from dukedeb and wahoo.
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Post by dukelightning on Feb 6, 2012 8:12:40 GMT -5
And wahoo is eagerly waiting on the revealing of the SXM show to see if he got all 3 right. I will probably predict the same 80s show that I predicted last week. Did not get my dates lined up.
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Post by matt on Feb 6, 2012 17:50:55 GMT -5
I'm eagerly awaiting the predictions from dukedeb and wahoo. Pete--that's great that you are wanting to hear our predictions for next week...so who am I not to oblige... 80's: 2/21/87 70's: 2/19/72 SXM: 2/14/76 Like that guy at the roulette table that hits a streak of luck with the same number and keeps betting it, I will keep guessing that my list of 80's predictions posted in mid-January continues to be a week off.
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Post by dukelightning on Feb 6, 2012 22:41:39 GMT -5
Ok, I have come up with an interesting set of predictions. I am going with the same 80s show I predicted last week because the date lines up better next week. As to the other 2, I have a hunch one of the series is going to play 1972 but I don't know which one. So to try to guarantee one right prediction out of the 2, I will predict the same for both. Of course, in reality I don't want both to play that show. No locks this week so I will stay one for one there.
80s....2/16/85....the songs played on 10/6/84 are long gone from the chart guys 70s....2/19/72 SXM...2/19/72
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Post by matt on Feb 7, 2012 18:32:16 GMT -5
80s....2/16/85....the songs played on 10/6/84 are long gone from the chart guys 70s....2/19/72 SXM...2/19/72 dukedeb...you are picking a daily double on the 2/19/72 show. That would be the first time both play the same show in the same weekend since the last weekend in July 2010 (7/29/78) if memory serves me correctly...
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Post by dukelightning on Feb 13, 2012 8:32:23 GMT -5
[
Original post on August 8, 2011.
Trend or pattern: top 10 droughts....since there is a current drought that has made the top 10, the longest droughts between shows played is listed.
1. SXM 8/21/76 to 5/7/77...8 months, 2 weeks...2010-11 2. Premiere 5/6/72 to 12/16/72...7 months, 1 week...2009 3. Premiere 6/22/74 to 1/4/75...6 months, 2 weeks...2009-10 4. SXM 11/18/78 to 5/19/79...6 months...2009-10 4. SXM 11/10/73 to 5/11/74...6 months...2010-11 6. SXM 7/27/74 to 1/18/75...5 months, 3 weeks...2009-10 7. SXM 1/7/78 to 6/17/78...5 months, 2 weeks...2010 7. SXM 3/1/75 to 9/13/75....6 months, 2 weeks....2011 9. Premiere 9/14/74 to 2/1/75...4 months, 3 weeks...2007-8 9. Premiere 3/11/78 to 7/29/78...4 months, 3 weeks...2010 9. Premiere 10/6/84 to ?.............4 months, 3 weeks...2011-12
FYI, the 80s series has none of the 10 longest droughts(not anymore), probably because of the shorter span of available shows. Non-year end specials cannot end a drought.
Went back through the records as I said I would in the other thread and lo and behold, we now have the longest drought in 80s series history going right now. The late 84/early 85 drought has reached 4 months and 3 weeks and becomes the first 80s drought to make the top 10 longest droughts. One more week and it will have 9th place by itself.
Since I have the last post, I will add to it with my predictions which will feature 1985 for the third straight week.
As to the others, the 70s series has not played a show that was aired in 2008 or later so far this year. Every last week of Feb show has been played for every year except 71, 76 and 79. So since they played 2 of those years already this month, I will go with the other one which just happens to be a leap year like this year. The predicted is tied for the closest (3/1/80) that AT40 ever came in the classic era to playing a show dated for Leap Day as it is called. And SXM, well, they like to play shows from before the actual date and I am predicting the preceding week's show. So I am predicting at least the second back to back week scenario..we had one from 1979 last October.
80s....2/23/85 70s....2/28/76 SXM...2/21/76
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Post by matt on Feb 15, 2012 10:23:35 GMT -5
Here we go for the weekend of Feb. 25, 2012:
80's: 2/23/85 70's: 2/28/76 SXM: 2/25/78
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Post by matt on Feb 15, 2012 10:26:23 GMT -5
The predicted is tied for the closest (3/1/80) that AT40 ever came in the classic era to playing a show dated for Leap Day as it is called. For the record - the only AT40 show in the original Casey/Shadoe era that was dated February 29th happened during da Shadoe's run - in 1992.
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Post by dukelightning on Feb 20, 2012 20:41:45 GMT -5
Can I just predict the SXM shows? I am 5 for 6 so far this year predicting their shows.....lol The Premiere series are killing me on the other hand! Speaking of which, we are at the point of whether or not they will air every year once before playing any year a second time. Here is how Premiere has done in that regard so far. Starting in 2008 since 2007 data is either incomplete or started in the middle of the year, the 70s series played every year once before playing a year a second time in 2008 but not since. The 80s series was perfect in this regard until last year when they got the urge to play 1980 a second time before 3 others years were played. What will happen this year? The 70s series has played every year except 1972 so far in 2012. The 80s series has yet to play 1983 and 85 and judging by people's comments, if those years aren't played real soon, a mutiny may ensue...lol I am predicting both Premiere series to play an unplayed year......
80s.................3/2/85......it may take a bribe to get them to play this year!! 70s.................3/4/72 SXM................3/4/78
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Post by matt on Feb 21, 2012 11:06:21 GMT -5
Here we go for the weekend of March 3rd:
80s: 3/2/85 70s: 3/4/72 SXM: 3/6/71 (chart date)
At some point I need to go back and tally how many times I guessed 1984 last fall and 1985 since the start of the new year (this will be #3 for '85 I think) and been wrong because Premiere can't seem to get a show from this stretch on the schedule. But...I'm going with it yet again.
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Post by dukelightning on Feb 21, 2012 15:58:13 GMT -5
It's the 9th time wahoo and/or myself have predicted a late 84/early 85 show in the last few months.
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